Good morning! Tropical Storm Henri is headed right for the south coast of New England, although it will weaken very rapidly as it makes landfall, which will lead to limited impacts outside of far southern New England and southeast New York. Trends yesterday brought the landfall area all the way to western Long Island with a second landfall in southwest Connecticut. The NHC forecast as of 8 am (below) reflects an idea similar to this, although overnight guidance actually brought the track to the east, with a landfall over southeast Connecticut or Rhode Island now being more likely.
In any event, barring a dramatic shift in the landfall toward Cape Cod, we should remain east of the track, which leaves the Lowell/Dracut area (and surrounding areas of northeast MA and southern NH) out of the heaviest rainfall. Right now, it looks like a half-inch to 1.5 inches of rain is likely here, mostly Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Well to the west, over 4″ of rain is possible in portions of western CT, western MA, and southeast NY. However, given the amount of rain we have had recently, minor flooding issues are still possible. Always remember to avoid flooded roads. In the event there is a bigger track shift to the east, that could put us in play for 2″ or more of rain and I’ll have an update if that becomes more likely.
As for wind, the strongest winds will also stay away from our area. Tropical storm force sustained winds are likely for a portion of the CT/RI coasts, Long Island, and potentially southeast MA for a period of time Sunday evening. The system will dramatically weaken as soon as it makes landfall, so in our region, expect winds of 10-20 mph, with a period of gusts of 30-40 mph, Sunday afternoon and evening. While it won’t be a major issue locally, minor damage is possible. This shouldn’t be affected too much by any track shifts, as the storm would have to retain some strength as it approaches the Mass Pike and beyond for us to truly get into some stronger winds. It looks like that is not going to happen, as the storm looks to weaken dramatically upon landfall.
I will have an update this afternoon if changes to the forecast warrant. Have a good day!