Wednesday 9/1/21 – Significant Flooding Possible Tonight

Good morning! For those of you visiting my site from the UML Weather Center social media pages (due to the continued outage of the Weather Center site), welcome back to campus, Riverhawks!!! I’m Nathan Coram, co-President of the AMS student chapter and a senior in the meteorology program. This is my local forecasting site I’ve been using for 6 years now (to the day, actually!), and I’ve used this a few times as a stand-in for the Weather Center blog and forecast site this summer. That site was knocked down by the IT outage in June, and is just passing its final security checks in the coming days. The site will then be brought back online for the public to use.

With mainly cloudy skies, expect a high around 72 for today, with a mainly calm wind. The remnants of Hurricane Ida will deliver a significant impact to our area this evening into tomorrow morning. Far and away, the main impact will be heavy rain. Rain begins this evening, which could cause some issues for the evening commute. The heaviest rain will be overnight tonight into the morning commute tomorrow, before winding down.

Expect 2 to 5 inches of rain, with a newly increased likelihood of reaching the higher end of that range as forecast trends bring heavier rain further north. Some locations in Southern New England will likely see 5-8″ of rain, but the best chance of that is south of the Mass Pike. Flooding impacts are likely tonight and tomorrow morning; there is a possibility of a major impact for the morning commute tomorrow. Given the high amount of rain in a relatively short amount of time (combined with the overall rainy stretch we have been in), expect smaller bodies of water to rise fast. Urban area, poor-drainage area, and small stream flooding could be very serious. The possibility exists for flooding in some smaller rivers as well. Some basements may even flood, so have a plan to handle water in the basement. The highest risk of serious impacts remains south of the Mass Pike; however, the risk of a serious impact covers all of Southern New England and potentially the southern tier of Northern New England. Overall, this could be a very serious flooding event, so be prepared NOW for possible disruptions!

Gusty winds are also a possibility tonight and tomorrow, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. While this won’t be the main issue, some pockets of wind damage are possible. Expect a low around 58 tonight, and a high around 68 tomorrow. Sustained winds will be out of the northeast at 5-15 mph, shifting to the north and eventually northwest at 10-20 mph. Skies clear out in the afternoon Thursday as Ida’s remnants move away. Expect mostly clear skies Thursday night, with a low around 54, and a northwest wind of 5-10 mph.

weather 2021-09-01.001

Going forward, expect a nearly perfect start to Labor Day weekend. Expect a high around 69 with mostly sunny skies Friday. Friday night will be mostly clear and 53; Saturday will be mostly sunny and 76; and Saturday night will be partly cloudy. Sunday will also be a very good day, but there is a slight chance of an afternoon shower; expect a high around 75 with partly sunny skies. Showers are possible Monday as an upper-level low may cross the area, though it’s early and still outside the scope of the 5-day forecast, so Monday may still be salvageable – stay tuned.

weather 2021-09-01.002

Have a good day!
-Nathan

Published by Nathan Coram

Hello! I'm Nathan Coram, a 20 year old meteorology student and weather geek, and am in my junior year at UMass Lowell as a meteorology major. I am the current Vice President of the UML American Meteorological Society Local Student Chapter. Prior to at UML, I attended the Dracut school system for my K-12 years, having graduated from Dracut High in 2018. I first got into weather with the December 2008 ice storm, which knocked out my electricity for 4 days. I had no idea how it could be raining and becoming ice immediately, and how rain can knock out power. (Now I do - warm layer aloft, cold air at surface). But I didn't really get into it until the heat of July 2010 and specifically a few severe weather events during that month, followed by the year 2011, which featured several high profile weather events. Since then I have had a growing interest, and am hoping to make it into the meteorology field, preferably with NOAA/NWS. But for now, I'm blogging here on Dracut Weather (also on Twitter and Facebook), helping with the UML Weather Center social media, and tweeting about the weather on my own account as well. Thanks for visiting!

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